Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Washington Buzzing

President Zardari's visit to the US comes as the Pakistani government is struggling to build consensus on fighting the Taliban. Finally, some concerted effort can be seen. As the President is in the US, trying to somehow make sure that Islamabad and Washington are on the same page for the same fight -- PM Gilani is working for a political coalition at home.

Many US officials have visited Pakistan lately, and they've almost always met the opposition leader, PML-N Chief Mian Nawaz Sharif. It's more than obvious that the Americans have intervened to bring about some sort of a political agreement within Pakistan. The breaking up of the ruling coalition, the subsequent developments, and the Long March had severely hampered the government's efforts to rein in a rising militancy + insurgency.

Hilary Clinton admitted that the US created problems for Pakistan, and later abandoned it. Senator Kerry (who visited Pakistani recently), has tabled a bill to triple non-military aid to Pakistan--along with Senator Richard Lugar. He also acknowledged that a shocking number of Pakistanis look at America as more of a threat than the Taliban.

Now, why this hatred for America? The Pakistani media has a big role to play, followed by the highly unpopular drone attacks. Last month, an American newspaper quoted a Bahria University professfor as having 'researched' and come out with the conclusion that the tribals actually favour drone attacks. Not a reliable report, since the newspaper did not give out enough information about the 'research'. Must be mentioned here that it's extremely hard to do ground research in FATA, due to the security situation.

Americans are unpopular for many reasons. A simple one is: Drone attacks are not avenged in the US, they are avenged on Pakistani soil by taking Pakistani lives. It would be hard to calculate how many Pakistanis have died in revenge suicide bombings in the recent months alone, to pressure the government to stop aiding NATO and US troops in Afghanistan. Reports have surfaced that the ISI works in collaboration with the Americans for their drone targets. They're probably not baseless, but Pakistan has repeatedly asked for drone control (in a sense admitting their effectiveness). There's a definite trust deficit between Islamabad and Washington.

As Zardari and other top officials visit Washington, something that should be on the cards is the Afghan funding of the insurgency in Pakistan. The Taliban have been able to recruit in large numbers, taking advantage of the neglected FATA and FANA regions. There are reports that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan pays its men up to 10,000 a month, with free meals, clothing, weapons etc.

But what the US is missing here is the drug trade in Afghanistan, which is the backbone of this insurgency. Drugs that are consumed in Europe and America pay for the weapons which kills Pakistani soldiers and citizens. Even as Richard Holbrooke acknowledge today that driving insurgents out of Afghanistan means they'll create havens in Balochistan -- there is a lack of understanding in Washington on how to deal with this problem. Everyone knows that until there is a relatively stable Afghanistan, there won't be stability in Pakistan's North-West. But, the solution that the US is looking for in Afghanistan is drastically different from what Islamabad terms as acceptable in the neighbouring country.

The United Stats has failed terribly in the externally imposed counter-insurgency operation in Afghanistan. As the US prepared its democratic triumph in Kabul, the Taliban regrouped in Kandahar. As lawmakers here tried to explain the Nizam-e-Adl regulation (pact with Swat Taliban), the TTP reorganised its ranks. But, mercifully, the army didn't wait and watch for too long -- they're back in, now with all of Malakand infested with militants.

This is not a small fight, it doesn't end at Swat. You crack down on them in Malakand, they'll reappear in Balochistan.

The trouble is, a coordinated, multi-faceted and well-funded effort is needed. As President Zardari, DG ISI and DG MO are in Washington -- there' s some hope that the two administrations may see eye to eye.

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